According to Andrey Kartapolov, a Russian politician and former army officer, the relocation of the Wagner group to Belarus positions Russia in a favourable position to swiftly target NATO assets near Poland and Lithuania.
Kartapolov mentioned in a statement to Russian state television that the private military company has the capability to strike the border region of Poland and Lithuania within a short span of "a matter of hours" from its newly established base.
After an unsuccessful uprising led by its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin last month, the mercenary group, Wagner, is said to have relocated to Belarus. In the aftermath of the brief mutiny against Russian President Vladimir Putin, an agreement was reached between the two parties. As part of the deal, Yevgeny Prigozhin accepted exile in Belarus, where Wagner fighters have started to gather and join him, according to reports.
Belarus occupies a crucial geopolitical position at the intersection of Europe, sharing borders with NATO member countries like Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, as well as neighbouring Ukraine.
"Should anything happen, we need this Suwalki Corridor very much," Andrey Kartapolov said during his TV appearance, adding, "A strike force [based in Wagner forces in Belarus] is ready to take this corridor in a matter of hours."
According to Rebekah Koffler, a former DIA intelligence officer, the relocation of the Wagner group to Belarus may be a component of Vladimir Putin's strategy to create a new front in the ongoing Ukraine war.
Also Read: Who is Sedoi, whom Putin wants to replace Yevgeny Prigozhin as Wagner chief?
“The repositioning of the Wagner Group was part of Putin’s plan to open the second front in Belarus, which is now in possession of tactical nuclear weapons. Putin -- under the guise of the so-called 'Prigozhin coup' -- placed Wagner, his best fighting force, in a much more threatening position: within striking distance of both Kyiv, Ukraine and NATO’s border - Latvia, Lithuania," Rebekah Koffler said.
Rebekah Koffler continued, “Russia's General Staff that does long-term forecasting, assessed a decade ago that a direct war between Russia and the US/NATO is ‘inevitable’. Moscow is interpreting every US and NATO move within that prism. Whatever Biden’s rationale is for this recent deployment, to Putin it means the US is ready to jump in the fight."
“Putin will not wait for the US to strike first. If Russian intelligence assesses that US/NATO forces are about to join the fight, Putin will likely do what Kartapolov warns about," he added.
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